Sunspot Detectives

Results update 24 November 2024

We are deeply grateful to all the volunteers who have contributed to this project and continue to do so. The overwhelming number of participants and classifications you have achieved so far has been truly inspiring!

You may have noticed fluctuations in the project’s completion percentage over time. This was because we have been uploading additional data for you to classify. Thanks to your incredible response, we have already classified all the data we originally set out to analyze and have since extended the project with a few more data!

Currently, the final batch of new data is being classified. However, there will be one additional round involving previously classified data. This is to address cases where the number of classifications did not meet our desired threshold (e.g., large groups which got many classifications of "0" which is incorrect) or where results among different users showed significant discrepancies. By increasing the number of classifications, we aim to refine and improve the accuracy of these results.

In the meantime, we wanted to take this opportunity to share an update on how your contributions are shaping the project. Below, you’ll find a snapshot of preliminary results. The following figures show the group that was being classified on the right side and a histogram (red) of the different classifications it received on the left side. A ciel vertical line marks the median value of the classifications, while if there is a dashed yellow vertical line it represents our count. Some cases were rather straightforward so that all of you returned exactly the same and correct classification, as is the case for the following image:

As you may already know, not all images were as straightforward as the one shown above. In many cases, there is some ambiguity in counting the spots. However, a clear consensus often emerges, as demonstrated in the following example:

To our surprise there were some rather erratic classifications, as in the following two cases where the groups are simple ones (with 1-2 spots), but some users entered values of 15 or 31!

Another thing one can notice in the previous examples is that some users entered the value of 0, when there are clearly spots in the drawing. For our analysis we will ignore such entries of "0", however, they have the unfortunate consequence of reducing our statistics for such cases. This is why some images will be uploaded again to be classified, so that we can increase their statistics.

Lastly, I want to show you how the results of all the classifications you have performed so far look!

The figures shows daily counts of individual sunspots (black circles) and annual values (red).
These are based on the median values of your classifications for each image, which we have used to create the time series of sunspot counts you see in the figure. Please note that the figure shows counts of individual sunspots and not the international sunspot number series as well as that this analysis is only an early glimpse of our results. Once all classifications are complete, we will conduct a thorough review to assess consistency across contributors and estimate the uncertainty in the results in order to derive the final series of sunspot numbers.

Thank you again for your enthusiasm and dedication. Your efforts are driving this project forward in ways we could not have imagined!